Macro/Finance Group, NIPFP

In this paper we study revisions in the annual estimates of India's GDP data. Using historic data, we study the magnitude and quality of revisions in the aggregate as well as the sectoral GDP series. We analyze the computation of the sectoral revised estimates and compare the extent of revision in growth rates from the first release to the final estimate. To understand the magnitude of revisions, we compute the standard deviation of revisions in growth rates for each sector and use that to build confidence bands around the initial estimates. We identify sectors with large variations in growth rates and argue that improving or changing the low quality indicators can help contain growth rate revisions and enhance the credibility of the estimates.

Links

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Press

• Studying revisions in Indian GDP data by Amey Sapre and Rajeswari Sengupta, on Ideas for India, 28^thNovember 2017.