Macro/Finance Group, NIPFP

Business cycle measurement in India

Business cycle measurement in India, Radhika Pandey, Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah. In: Smirnov S., Ozyildirim A., Picchetti P. (eds) Business Cycles in BRICS. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham, 2019.

This chapter presents the business cycle chronology for the Indian economy. Two distinct phases are analysed: the pre-1991 period when the cycles were mainly driven by monsoon shocks and the post-1991 phase where we see the emergence of conventional business cycles driven by investment-inventory fluctuations. The chapter sheds light on the economic conditions that shaped the nature of cycles in the two phases. The concluding section of the chapter presents an overview of the economic conditions post-2012.